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Dynamic Analyses in Election Studies

Mark Davis, Christian Hoops and Tobias Michael , Ipsos Public Affairs, in Proceedings of the Australian Statistical Conference IMS Sydney, 07/2014

The contribution argues for a design that has established itself in the field of scientific political research – the Rolling Cross-Section Design which allows unforeseeable media incidents to be dynamically researched at the daily level. By also taking into account mobile device samples, a better image of the general population can be obtained since young and highly mobile groups of voters are surveyed accordingly.

 This leads to authoritative analysis results that come close to the reality. Furthermore, the RCS-data allows even hard-to-reach populations to be taken into account appropriately in the random sample. Additionally, landline and mobile device samples were used for the first time in conjunction with each other in this RCS-Design. This allows new knowledge to surface about relatively unknown groups such as the Mostly Mobiles. This group is mainly made up of middle-aged, well-educated men with a good income but a low level of political participation.

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